Explanation of LPG basis in the second quarter

Related news 30 07-2020

  At the beginning of the second quarter, both the LPG spot and futures market prices showed an upward trend. After the rise, the futures prices went out of a volatile and strong trend, but the spot price performance was weak and the absolute value of the basis expanded.

LPG CYLINDER

  According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of June 30, the settlement price of the main LPG contract was 3541 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.30% in the second quarter. From the chart above, it can be seen that both the LPG spot and futures market prices showed an upward trend at the beginning of the second quarter. After the rise, the futures price went out of a volatile and strong trend, but the spot price performance was weak and the absolute value of the basis expanded. The divergence of the LPG market period and spot price trends is mainly due to the deviation between expectations and reality. The expected seasonal demand in the future is improving, which makes the futures disk premium. In the spot market, demand performance was weak from mid-April to the end of June, restricting short-term liquefied gas price trends. After entering the third quarter, as the supply of liquefied gas market has narrowed, the price of liquefied gas has been stimulated to rise. However, the seasonal demand in the market outlook has improved and the market price of liquefied gas is still positive.

  In the second quarter, my country's total production of liquefied petroleum gas was 5.5236 million tons, an increase of 3.39% month-on-month. In the first quarter, China’s total LPG production was lower than last year’s level, mainly due to the public health incident that broke out at the end of January. The start-up load of refineries dropped. As China’s liquefied gas mainly comes from refinery by-products, the production of liquefied petroleum gas also declined. . After entering the second quarter, as companies continue to resume work and production, the production of liquefied petroleum gas has begun to rebound, and market supply pressure has slowly increased.

  According to customs data, the domestic imports of liquefied petroleum gas from January to May of 2020 were 7.7081 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the import volume in April was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 8.13% year-on-year, and the import volume in May was 2.055 million tons. Tons, up 8.22% year-on-year; exports were 379,000 tons, down 20.01% year-on-year. Due to the impact of public health events in the first quarter, the terminal consumption demand was weak. After entering the second quarter, as companies continue to resume work and production, and downstream deep processing profits are acceptable, industrial gas demand improves. However, civil demand is in the low season of traditional demand, the overall market demand is limited, and LPG is still in a weak demand situation.

  On the whole, China’s domestic spot market for liquefied petroleum gas performed weakly in the second quarter, and the spot market price significantly discounted futures prices. After entering the third quarter, the supply of liquefied petroleum gas market has narrowed. After the increase, the seasonal demand in the market will improve. It is expected that the price of liquefied petroleum gas may show an upward trend in the future. As the delivery month approaches, the price gap between the spot market and the futures market will continue to shrink. It is expected that the price trend of the spot market of liquefied petroleum gas may be stronger than the trend of futures prices.

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